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NFL Conference Championship Weekend 2015

Happy AFC and NFC Conference Championship Weekend! After today we will all know who will be playing in Super Bowl XLIX. In the meantime, here are my predictions for today's NFL Games!

Coming into AFC Conference Championship Weekend I still have my preseason Super Bowl Picks alive: picked the Patriots to defeat the Packers in Super Bowl XLIX, and coming off a 5-0 Divisional Picks Weekend. However, I unfortunately believe one of the teams I picked in the preseason for the Super Bowl is not going to make it.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (3:05 pm ET on FOX):

This game has many story lines. We have Marshawn Lynch which is always a story one way or the other, Russell Wilson vs Super Bowl Winning QB's, Seahawks Dynasty talk potentially starting, a banged up Aaron Rodgers & Eddie Lacy, and mother nature all potentially playing huge roles! I think the Hawks D, Rodgers' calf and the wind being the biggest factors in this game. Rodgers is clearly not healthy which affects not only the passing game but the rushing game as well. Eddie Lacy is not 100% either and has not been himself running the ball when he's asked to carry the ball out the Pistol or Shotgun formations which may be the case a little more today due to Rodgers' calf. I do not expect Russell Wilson to blow up throwing the ball but he could easily rush for 50+ yards and a TD. Marshawn Lynch and the running game along with Wilson's rushing should keep the chains moving and the Packers Offense off the field.

Odds makers, people I credit for being smarter than most people including myself when it comes to picking sports games, have made the lines Seahawks -7.5 and the Over / Under at 45.5. That being said, I like the Seahawks to win and Under 45.5 in this game.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (6:40 pm ET on CBS):

As many of you know, I love Andrew Luck and believe he's the future of the NFL. In fact, I was called all kinds of fun things when I stated Luck would have the best rookie season by a QB in the history of the NFL in 2012. That being said, I just do not think he's ready to beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady Teams on back-to-back weeks and go to the Super Bowl. Almost every week, Luck makes a bone-headed decision that ends up as a turnover, one turnover today may be the difference. Plus, outside of T.Y. Hilton, I do not have much faith in an aging Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks or Donte Moncrief to make big impacts in a positive way against this Patriots D. Coby Fleener drops dry balls all of the time so, the probability of him catching a wet one is much lower; plus, considering what he did to the Patriots the last time they played, it's not likely he will have a big game against them this time. I could definitely see Daniel "Boom" Herron making a big impact on this game, especially catching the ball out of the backfield. Now, I have no idea which Patriots RB will be "the guy" this week, but I expect the Patriots to be somewhat successful when they do run. Despite what Jonas Gray did to the Colts D the last time they played, I think the Patriots will lean on the passing game. I'm not saying Tom Brady is going to blow up today, but Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman both should.

Odds makers, again, people I credit for being smarter than most people including myself when it comes to pickings sports games, have made the lines Patriots -7 and the Over / Under at 53.5. That being said, I like the Patriots to win, the Colts +7 and Under 53.5 in this game.

Daily Fantasy Football Plays: (prices are from FanDuel)

QB - Tom Brady (9100) OR Russell Wilson (8900): The truth of this position this week is that it should be horrible weather in both games. The wind in Seattle is expected to have gusts up to 60 mph! However, Wilson should do plenty of dump off passes to Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, Luke Willson, Richardo Lockette, and run, a lot. Despite the rain in New England, Brady should be able to weather the storm.

RB - Marshawn Lynch (8600), Eddie Lacy (8300), Daniel "Boom" Herron (7000) OR James Starks (4500): These are the only options this week in my opinion. Who knows which New England RB will score or even be the lead back for that matter this week? I know I listed four guys and you can only play two, but I did that to help you choose your team for flexibility purposes not because I'm indecisive. That being said, for me I used Lynch and Herron.

WR - Randall Cobb (8800), T.Y. Hilton (8200), Julian Edelman (7500), Brandon LaFell (7000), Davante Adams (6000), Donte Moncrief (5300) OR Richardo Lockette (4800): Edelman is my number one play at Wide Receiver this week. His price is appealing, he should get a ton of targets and I expect him to score a TD. Hilton is always dangerous and definitely performs in playoff games, just go look at his 100+ yard games. Cobb is the most viable Packers WR today imo. Cobb will line up in the slot, the backfield, and should receive more carries than usual as well as plenty of targets. LaFell could easily have a big game if Edelman or Gronk don't plus most of the D's attention will be on Gronk and Edelman. Adams could be the "forgotten guy" outside of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb which could make him very dangerous today assuming Aaron Rodgers is able to play all four quarters. Moncrief has huge potential upside, but I just don't think he will have a big game if Darrelle Revis gets locked up on him. Lockette may see 3 to 5 targets today but he could have a TD which could make him a play.

TE - Rob Gronkowski (8200), Coby Fleener (5500), Luke Willson (5400) OR Dwayne Allen (5300): Gronk is of course the play here if you can figure out a way to play him; But, Willson, Fleener (due for a TD) or Allen could have the second biggest game at the Tight End Position this week. Willson is stellar but I don't expect him to have 25+ yard catch or a TD today. Fleener with his drops and in the rain mixed with him having a huge game against the Patriots last game worry me. Allen scored last week and may be asked to stay in to block more this week. So, picking between Willson, Fleener and Allen is a coin flip imo but they are the best cheaper than Gronk options.

K - Adam Vinatieri (4600): To me Vinatieri is the play this week. He's the second cheapest Kicker, playing his old team, may be asked to attempt a few FG's today, and the wind isn't expected to be too fast. Granted, it is suppose to rain but your other options are Stephen Gostkowski (4900) in the same game or Steven Hauschka (4800) or Mason Crosby (4500) in 15 mph to 60 mph winds.

Defense / Special Teams - Seattle Seahawks (5300) OR New England Patriots (4900) - I expect Tom Brady and Russell Wilson to both take care of the ball today much better than Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. As you already know, DEF and ST TD's are king in Daily / Weekly Fantasy Sports Leagues. So, if Brady and Wilson don't turn the ball over there is a very strong probability that the Colts nor Packers score a defensive touchdown. On the flip side, Luck and a hobbled Rodgers could easily have turnovers. Thus, making it more probable for the Seahawks or Patriots D's to score. Of course, sacks, points allowed, etc. matter. As we all know, the Patriots do not get a lot of pressure on QB's but the Seahawks do and should sack Rodgers at least two times today.

So, there is my take on today's AFC / NFC Conference Championship Games. Thank you for reading, enjoy the games, and I hope you'll connect with me using my links below.

Austin D. Jordan
Founder of NFLVR
@AustinDJordan on Twitter
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