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Potential 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Letdown: CJ Spiller

AustinDJordan's picture
Some people are calling CJ Spiller a Top 5 Overall Draft Pick for 2013 NFL Fantasy Football Season. I strongly disagree.

Spiller is coming off a career season and career high in touches (in the NFL). The touches could lead to potential injury if he has a large workload to start the season compounded with the fact that he is not the biggest back in the league. Spiller's not a conventional "in between the tackles runner" despite his great yards per carry average in between the tackles. Most of his longer up the middle runs, which skew his yards per carry average, are due to Trap and Draw Plays. Probability wise, it is unrealistic to think Spiller will average 6.0+ yards per carry two seasons in a row.

This season the Buffalo Bills have a new Head Coach which brings along a new Offensive System. So, those Trap and Draw Plays may not even be in the Playbook in 2013. Also, do not forget the amount of times the Buffalo Bills lined up with four receiver sets last season which opened up running lanes for Spiller. I would bet these types of plays are in the Playbook because Spiller excels at them, but the change in coaching is definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration.

This season, Defensive Coordinators have plenty of film on Spiller and will game plan accordingly. The added attention should slow him down and could potentially lead to injury as well due to Spiller taking more hits.

Fred Jackson and his big contract are back. Jackson is not truly a threat to Spiller's playing time but Jackson will get his fair share of touches and goal line carries which limits Spiller's rushing TD's. Considering Spiller only rushed for six (6) TD's last season, Jackson being back can not help him for Fantasy Football purposes.

All-in-all, CJ Spiller is an exceptional player in real life and still a great Fantasy Football option, just not a Top 5 Overall Pick in my personal opinion. I project CJ Spiller to have 982 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD's, 414 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TD's (see 5/21 tweet).

Whether you agree or disagree, thank you for reading this blog entry and I hope you will check out more content on NFLVR.com.

Austin D. Jordan
Founder of NFLVR
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